China under the New Deal real estate market analysis

 China under the New Deal real estate market analysis
5 21 pm, to participate as a special guest and information network part of his keynote address and Writing.
introduced the New Deal on the property market background
2008   9   interrupt our U.S. financial crisis since the March 2008 real estate that have emerged since the normal adjustment, the government depends on the initial investment land sales money, not to stir up prices there is no demand, no demand no building, no land is no demand, no government investment, so the decision of China's economy is real estate driven economy, high prices, high profits stimulating investment. This house can not sell it does not matter, because we allow it to repeat transactions, allowing from fare increases, allowing the consumer loans in the name of investment, so it is a high price it is a mad cow driven economy, so that once the implementation it is not brake the car. So Premier Wen Jiabao in This madness is far more than the absolute level of 2007.
while real estate prices to the construction industry, building materials, construction machinery, all pulling up on energy, half of China's economy has entered one of the extensive economic re- back, the so-called intensive economy and the transformation of economic growth more and more away. To promote the economic development of land, around the emergence of large-scale demolition activities, real estate, demolition, infrastructure demolition, caused the public and the Government strongly against, and are very direct confrontation.
addition, a series of bubble burst, the Dubai event, etc., all over the world laugh in China, no media mockery of China, short of China. Therefore, under the public appeal This year there are many in the two critics, the media rarely consistent since the high prices of government manipulation of the shelling, the words activities, and so on. I think these might form a great pressure on decision makers, which may be a New Deal background.
the current macro regulation and control face a new barrier, may be caused by regulation of the four major arguments used to be more stressed mortality
more up to 2006, the regulation is essentially a land policy, but also monetary policy, but did not control many suites loan, second mortgage policy in 2007 down payment and interest rates to 1.1 times, which played a significant role , indicating a tight monetary policy was a big play a role. the original implementation of tight monetary policy even if no use, only to do the house money, the other does not make money, so after tightening the money flow more quickly to real estate, so this is the regulation of The most important influence, the government increasingly lost public support,UGG boots, high prices caused widespread indignation and discontent, the demolition of burning caused by conflicts such,UGG boots cheap, the Government has been worried about this, very worried about the unrest. Once the turmoil of our GDP data is very ridiculous.
Government really worried about the financial crisis, the so-called subprime Chinese. China is forcing up the subprime mortgage called us, because our income is just casually, and buy a hundred of random speculation without any basis , so this is pure bad debt crisis debt-style. because the whole world is watching China's jokes, when in Chinese bubble burst.
Therefore, although the Government is frightened to shore up the city, also in Huozhongquli. So , the two fear the government finally decided to introduce a policy determination. In particular, think that the recovery in exports, the industrial recovery, so do not rely on real estate was. but no detailed analysis, mainly in construction of industrial recovery recovery recovery in exports last year base is too low, some recovery in growth, but this time in Europe after the debt crisis, there was some impact. so macro-control this time facing a new barrier.
four debates have arisen, one is there is a bubble of controversy. The topic of discussion shows that China is now a confound right and wrong time. The second is steady or falling house prices argument, if the stability of prices, then we may have relaxed a bit, a little control, then or drop Rate it, as long as the credit policy now hold, house prices do not rise, the speculators do not buy a house, throws, falling house prices will not let loose the emergence of new measures to control these arguments mean This step will back problems, this argument is also very important. take Premier Wen's report, according to the understanding of the Ministry of Construction, according to Ren their understanding, they are stable, said the State Council is to let housing prices down, not let it rise let rise down, rather than down. The third is the price of China's controversial kidnapping, abduction of the Chinese is a good thing there is no price, then they would have firm control, but now face after the crisis has emerged in Europe dynamic adjustment, fine tuning, this time there is the possibility of retreat, so that the kidnapping of Chinese outside China could not stand any sign of trouble. The fourth is the regulation of the validity of arguments. local governments and developers to think too effective , the effect is obvious; but people think the effect is not enough. developers believe that too strict regulation to rush into battle, this time it seems nothing will be final.
is currently facing four major arguments that the housing market in wait and see period, particularly the attitude of the central best guess everyone, that the central government was for everyone to guess, not of its own position, is also observed, fear of people cursed, afraid of driving economic growth in the real estate affected, It is a dilemma, so we are going to send the strongest voices for the Government to completely abandon the extensive real estate driven economy, mad cow economy and harm the economy.
half the price drop is inevitable and even the bubble burst in
April 2009 I predicted that China's housing prices have dropped 40-50%, because housing prices has risen a great deal, and if I still hold this view, many people will say that last year's level can only be reduced, especially Hefei can be reduced only in the last year's level, this level is very high. This means that first step down last year's level, on this basis, then four or five percent of the decline, of course, is the first-tier cities situation, the other second and third lines can be analog. If after considering the rise last year, this high point in the country should have 40-50% of the decline, including all of the city, the city's drop in first-line should be even greater. < br> I have three basis, I firmly believe that my basis. First, I think China's economic growth is a problem, China's economic growth rate to 8% this is a problem, we might be 3-5% real growth are enough to choke.
green GDP according to a reasonable deduction, we may not be economic growth to a green rice field into a house, I do not know if this is to create wealth, I think it is a great loss of wealth. We destroyed a large number of social resources, deep-fried mountain, deforestation, mining imports, production houses as a speculative chip is controlled, the bank took the risk, banks could explode at any moment, I do not know the wealth? the wealth in other country is also a cost price, land is worthless, so I do not optimistic about China's economic growth is not optimistic about .2008 at the end of year I, as I said we lost the momentum of economic growth, our growth in the past by the Housing real estate and exports, exports are now gone, the real estate driven economy in China is not a good economy, it is the destruction of forests and arable land increased, there is no pseudo-growth wealth creation.
exports do not create wealth, and our wealth to the Americans, and Americans back to the U.S. dollar has borrowed, to we played a IOUs, that is not starting, so the export does not create wealth. only by the consumer to pull, but now people the income level at a very low level, China's Gini coefficient of more than 0.5, the Xinhua News Agency, China's Gini coefficient has ever issued a document that differentiation may lead to social unrest, Xinhua news agency dared to send such statements, that the Chinese economy has mad cow onto a point of no return. to the end of 2008 to the present economy of this mad cow pushed the Chinese point of no return, so it is not optimistic about China's economic growth, and are not optimistic about how the growth in house prices have continued to rise.
other people most of the income growth is very limited, well keep up with rising house prices. can not afford the prices naturally come down.
Third, housing surplus, the excess is the main house, we have little control a bit credit policy, oversupply of now. So, housing is a serious surplus, never in short supply, I have long considered this requirement is defined as an unreasonable demand, malicious demand, which is home to a hidden agenda to take to seize the wealth of society, While all three of China's house prices to weaken, these three are determined to be a major problem the Chinese economy.
collapse of the Chinese economy has been supporting me, and I am talking about the real estate bubble and the collapse of the Chinese economy is synchronized The. so go on, the economy may be caused by the collapse of the local debt, financial crisis, caused by the housing crisis, there may be social unrest caused by the collapse, and hyperinflation caused by collapse of the economy also make runs on these three who are most likely to occur. Therefore, this term drop in home prices is inevitable, this is a long-term trend. the short term if we continue the current policy remains unchanged, they do not go back to the policy, I firmly believe that to Beijing this city to the average drop in home prices this year should reach 20-30%, and if so to keep falling next year, bigger range, may be a more rapid decline in the process. so there will be some economic issues, where the debt crisis would break out, the real estate crash in 2012. This is my judge.
you buy a house to look for 30 years, 30 years after the house to see what kind of, but maybe 10 years, 8 years to tear down the Perhaps not take 30 years to collapse, perhaps 30 years is a cost to the.
government can not always hoodwink
Chinese or policy of the city now, the government can hoodwink the public. at least in a certain period of time, not that can hoodwink the public in the year after, at least this year there may be, do what. but I just said, the government is watching, waiting to see depends on the coordination of multiple stakeholders, the main interest now to see more local governments have they say is the largest voice in local government is far stronger than the central bank, the central bank did not speak now, when the dumb, the most detached, and was supposed to be the busiest. macro-control is mainly through the central bank control , but they do not speak now.
local government is not the same, like Chongqing, Shanghai and hope that through their violent actions to play down housing prices, as Shanghai is also the beginning of the two organizations at the local high prices offered to declare war , Chongqing also want to adjust prices to a reasonable price, the introduction of property tax, which is likely to succeed in both. more local governments are no ambition, their ambition is to sell more land, more debt, the local government may become a major voice, so this year the Department of Homeland While a plan, but may not realize, where he says no money, do not engage in security, which may be an important voice.
The other is the voice of the developer , the developers say they are leading, they are pillars, now play down the pillars, the stock has also been hit down, down banks, real estate and bank accounts of these two indices one-third of the stock market dropped,bailey UGG boots, the Prime Minister felt to very bad, so feel into the dilemma stage, so there is the public voice, the voice of many can not afford a house, the policy of the voice, the voice of the public, this side has not played a leading role in a very good, but not played a very good bet this time the impact of regulation. these areas will see who's louder voice, as the voice of the public if the larger, central dare not act rashly, if so, the house turnover will gradually decline, the chain will fall.
small second-hand housing turnover may be increased, because a very large volume decline, some people will take disk, but the total is declining, and second-hand housing will decline 一手房. small number of enterprises first move, after moving most enterprises. Some second-hand housing in some places may be close to 30%. This is the situation this year.
the situation next year,cheap UGG boots, even if no new policy, tax policy is not even introduced, I would like to drop rate will increase. If the introduction of interest rate policy and the appreciation of policy, tax policy, then the bubble burst for next year is not impossible, said the collapse of the original table is not impossible to achieve.